Sunday, December 23, 2007

On The Edge Of Opportunity

Imagine you could buy a three-bedroom house with a yard — not just a condo! — priced in the mid-$300,000s, only a 15-minute drive from downtown Seattle (on a good day), in a community with a new bike trail, ethnic eateries, 28 parks (including a saltwater beach), a cozy neighborhood cinema featuring $3 movies, a growing arts scene, a supermarket specializing in fresh seafood, organic produce, Asian ingredients and live music on Friday nights, and a highly regarded school district where each student gets a laptop and chance to take instrumental music starting in fifth grade.

Think Shoreline.

Shoreline? Dowdy Shoreline? That stretch of car dealerships, casinos and strip malls lining Aurora Avenue just north of Seattle? That sprawl of cul-de-sacs and ramblers prone to power outages and flooding? The place where your parents' friends used to live?

Look again. Like a boomer edging back into the scene after several stagnant decades, this first-ring bedroom town is in the midst of a major makeover.

No longer content to be a cookie-cutter suburb, Shoreline just might transform itself into the new "it" place to live, work and play. Trendy restaurants, little shops to walk to, joints to hear jazz. They're planning a new city hall and civic center next to a Grease Monkey outlet, talking about a farmers market, dreaming of a bike race ("Tour de Shoreline"?) on the new Interurban Trail.

Many of its single-family homes are expected to go on the market within the decade as an older generation moves on, and developers talk about putting up as many as 1,500 new apartments and condos during the same span.

Will Shoreline evolve? Can it become cosmopolitan while still remaining friendly? Grow urban charm and eco-vigor in a landscape built around cars?

Why not? If back-shop Burien can remake itself into an artists' enclave, and the once seedy Alderwood mall can morph into a quasi-European plaza, surely Shoreline can create a There there. After all, Ballard did it.

"Shoreline's not hot like Ballard, but there is a buzz," says Tom Boydell, Shoreline's economic-development manager. "It's a place on the edge of opportunity. There's a lot of wealth up here, a lot of diversity, terrific leaders, great businesses, great schools, proximity to I-5, Highway 99 and downtown Seattle. And yet, at the same time, it's got vulnerabilities. So the city's got some work to do."

How, exactly, to create a There there? What makes a community cool? How to breathe new life into crumbling pavement?

Using Shoreline as an unscientific case study, we posed those questions to developers, visionaries and plain folks.

Naturally, when it comes to Change, people debate whether more density is good, bad or inevitable; how much, how fast, what quality; the merits and morals of parking; whether new development will build or destroy a community, sink real-estate values or price them out of the neighborhood.

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source: seattletimes.nwsource.com

Realtors' group offers upbeat outlook for '08

Bucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real-estate agents on Monday said the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales.

The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing-home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million — the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year, down from 6.48 million last year.

The Realtors' group also forecast that sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.

Numerous other economists, however, are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy were to sink into a recession.

Patrick Newport, an economist at Global Insight, forecasts that home sales will drop from 5.66 million this year to 4.7 million in 2008 — 1 million fewer than the real-estate group's forecast.

"With the economy and job growth slowing ... it is hard to believe that we have hit bottom," Newport said in a note to clients Monday. "Our view is that prices need to drop further, and that housing activity will hit bottom about the middle of 2008."

Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bank, said the United States is 12 to 18 months away from a "normal housing market" in which sales are growing and prices are rising or stable. Furthermore, he said the trade group's 0.2 percent revision to its sales forecast should be taken with a grain of salt, given the difficulty of projecting with any certainty.

Nevertheless, the Realtors group's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, gave a positive outlook for job growth and the replacement of subprime lenders to borrowers with weak credit with government-backed loans as reasons for the improved outlook.

"Despite over-exaggerated negative coverage on the housing conditions, many local markets are actually seeing price increases," Yun said at a press briefing. "Mortgage availability is improving."

While Yun acknowledged that housing prices soared relative to buyers' availability to afford homes in places like Miami and San Diego, he said housing "remains affordable in vast parts of the country," particularly in the Midwest.

The trade group also said its index that forecasts near-term home sales inched upward in October. The trade group's seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes rose 0.6 percent to 87.2 from an upwardly revised September index of 86.7, but was down 18.4 percent from a year ago — the third-largest year-over-year decline on record.

The Realtors group also forecast that the median price for U.S. existing homes — the point at which half sold for more and half for less — will sink by 1.9 percent to $217,600 this year and rise 0.3 percent next year to $218,300. If median prices fall this year, it will be the first price decline in the nearly 40 years that the trade group has tracked that data.

Other ways to measure national housing prices, such as the S&P/Case-Shiller index, have already shown price declines. In addition, a government index of national home prices marked a quarterly decline for the first time in 13 years in the third quarter.

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source: seattletimes.nwsource.com

Seattle envisions new Civic Square

London has its Trafalgar Square, New York has its Rockefeller Center and Seattle now wants its Civic Square. Across the street from City Hall, politicians want to build a public plaza and high-rise tower they hope will help revitalize the south end of downtown.

To get its signature square, the city is considering a complex deal selling half a city block for $25 million to Triad, the Seattle developer that would build and own the 40-story tower of offices and condos. Seattle wouldn't get much in cash from the sale — just $4.5 million — because Triad would subtract the cost of designing and building the city-owned plaza.

Observers say it's hard to gauge whether the city would get a good deal for a rare development gem — an empty downtown block. The City Council's land-use committee today will discuss whether to approve the sale. The full council plans a vote Monday.

If approved, construction on the $350 million project would start in 2009 and end in 2011.

The $25 million bid from Triad breaks down to $975 per square foot. Another empty downtown lot, at Fifth Avenue and Stewart Street, recently sold for $2,315 per square foot, but analysts say the two are not comparable.

"It's impossible to make any direct correlation because of the unusual nature of the development agreement," said Matthew Gardner, a land-use economist in Seattle, citing the city's specific environmental and design goals for this project.

"Any situation when you first mention that they're paying $25 million, it sounds like a deal. But when we look at it and know that there are all these other scenarios involved ... it makes it very unique."

The block formerly was home to the Public Safety Building, which was torn down in 2005. Since then, the site has been little more than a block-sized hole surrounded by fences and bordered by low-income housing, the county courthouse and a hotel under construction.

In the latest design proposal, a curved tower of 22 stories of office space would rise on the Cherry Street side of the block and narrow into 17 stories of 155 condos. Lower stories would be used for retail.

The city wants the tower to be built to the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Gold standard, and an international team of well-known architects and designers would work on the project.

The developers would make an annual contribution of $340,000 to the city for the operation and maintenance of the plaza on the south side of the block, along James Street.

The city would get $420,000 in lease payments each year for separate retail shops built on the plaza.

Income from the developer would pay for operations and event programming, such as concerts or festivals.

City Councilmember Peter Steinbrueck, who was in the group that selected the developer, says the city would get a good deal.

"It can't be looked at in terms of a simple land sale because it's more complex than that," said Steinbrueck, who chairs the land-use committee. "The value we're getting is a permanent and sizable open civic space and an income stream to go with it."

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source: seattletimes.nwsource.com

Compromise reached on South Lake Union plan

The Seattle City Council cleared the way for Vulcan, Paul Allen's development firm, to build three 160-foot-high office buildings in South Lake Union for Amazon.com, which would bring 4,000 employees to the area.

A majority of the council voted Wednesday to allow taller buildings on two blocks to accommodate Amazon's expected move. In return, Vulcan will pay roughly $6.3 million to build affordable housing in South Lake Union.

Mayor Greg Nickels and Vulcan had agreed to a $5 million payment for housing. But Councilmember Peter Steinbrueck balked, saying the mayor's proposal was too easy on Vulcan's plan to more than double its development capacity on the two blocks.

Steinbrueck had said Vulcan should pay $7.5 million to be consistent with requirements for developers downtown. He said Seattle faces an affordable-housing crisis.

Steinbrueck, who chairs the council's development and planning committee, agreed Wednesday to a compromise that split the difference between his and the mayor's positions.

"It's a balancing act here," he said. "This is the single largest development plan, short of the [professional football and baseball] stadiums, that we've seen in recent times. This compromise represents consensus for moving forward."

A Vulcan official said nothing is certain until the full council ratifies the deal Monday and the company signs a lease with its prospective tenant.

But Lyn Tangen, Vulcan's director of government and community affairs, said it "looks very likely" the company will proceed with plans to build 1.5 million square feet of office space for a single tenant.

Vulcan, Amazon and Nickels have not confirmed that Amazon is the tenant. But Steinbrueck said "there's no question" it's Amazon.

The council voted 5-1 in Steinbrueck's committee for the compromise. Council President Nick Licata dissented, saying Vulcan's payment was not enough to meet the housing needs of janitors, secretaries and service workers who would toil in Vulcan's new buildings.

The $6.3 million would provide roughly 125 apartments, according to the Mayor's Office. They would be affordable to residents earning less than $43,000 a year.

"Today was a good day for jobs and housing for working people in Seattle," Nickels said Wednesday, referring to both the Vulcan matter and the council's 6-3 vote to curtail office and retail development on 5,000 acres of industrial land around the city.

The mayor's industrial-land proposal has been hotly debated, with labor unions and their allies squaring off against property owners at packed City Hall hearings.

Blue-collar workers argued that rising property values would drive developers to displace industry with office and retail uses, which often pay higher rents than warehouses and manufacturing firms.

To quell speculation on industrial land, Nickels proposed new rules that would reduce maximum office space from 100,000 to 10,000 square feet, except for offices related to industry. Nickels would roll back retail space from 75,000 to 10,000 square feet.

Steinbrueck, who is leaving the council at the end of the year and has often battled Nickels, tweaked the mayor's plan to allow more office space in some industrial areas.

Property owners say the restrictions would reduce the value of their land in a misguided effort to protect jobs.

The threat to industrial jobs isn't as great as perceived, they contend, and the city also lacked accurate information about the number, type and location of blue-collar jobs in different parts of the city.

Councilmembers Richard Conlin, Jan Drago and Tom Rasmussen agreed with property owners, and said the Nickels-Steinbrueck plan to help protect industrial land was a rush to judgment.

Dave Gering, executive director of Seattle's Manufacturing Industrial Council, called the council vote "huge" and "thrilling."

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source: seattletimes.nwsource.com

Bucking trends, Quadrant starts seven houses a day

It's just another day in the "Command Center," the unofficial name of a cluster of cubicles at Quadrant Homes' headquarters in Bellevue. A large screen fills a wall, tracking work in six counties: 16 developments, 50 vendors, 350 houses under construction.

Command Center employees help to choreograph what everyone here calls "the dance" — making sure the work is done with minimum delays and false starts. On this morning, paving in one development threatens the schedule for 33 houses.

"There's definitely a vibe of pressure in the Command Center," said Wes Guyer, one of two directors of construction. But the experienced staff members soon have things sorted out and on schedule.

Quadrant Homes has spent a decade perfecting home building as a predictable, disciplined manufacturing process.

The goal, President Peter Orser said, is "to have a unique way to deliver value to customers: more house for less money." That focus has helped make Quadrant, a unit of Weyerhaeuser, the largest homebuilder in Washington.

Now, with the industry facing its most severe contraction in decades, the "Quadrant Way" is paying another dividend. Along with Seattle's relatively stable housing market, it is helping to protect Quadrant's already-strong position.

It wasn't always that way. Quadrant started building here in the 1960s and was acquired by Weyerhaeuser, of Federal Way, in 1969.

Before 1996, Quadrant built houses on spec, waiting for buyers. This traditional industry practice is now causing much pain among major production builders, especially in former hot spots such as Nevada and Arizona.

Research led Quadrant in a different direction. Many buyers didn't like the houses being offered, the company found.

Shifting away from spec building eliminated some risk, while pushing for a faster production timetable could save money. Increasing safety was also a goal. Thus, Quadrant embarked on a change of culture.

"We wanted to create predictability in the process," said Orser, a 20-year Quadrant veteran who became president in 2003. "We wanted to make it manufacturing but still deliver on design and quality."

That was difficult in an industry that is still largely based on craft.

Quadrant buyers have approximately 10,000 choices to personalize their new homes, from kitchen appliances and countertops to carpeting or hardwood flooring.

"A house is not like a car. It's not seen as a highly engineered piece of equipment," said Orser. "Yet this is probably the biggest purchase most people will ever make."

Quadrant's goal was to begin the permitting and building process only when the house had been sold, and to move quickly to complete it.

A rigorous scheduling process would kick in, designed to make the tasks of building a house flow seamlessly. Gone, for example, is the futile trip of a vendor to install a bathtub, only to find that the promised preparation work hasn't been completed.

Orser cites the "just-in-time" manufacturing process of a Boeing or Toyota. Quadrant began with a 63-day timetable. Now it takes 54 working days to complete a house. Ten years ago, Quadrant started one house per day; now it starts seven, a number unchanged by the national downturn.

"It's the secret sauce to affordable housing," Orser said.

Subcontractors key

At the heart of Quadrant's process is its relationship with what its employees call "vendor partners." Subcontractors do most of the work at any developer's subdivisions. Quadrant typically has only two or three employees on each site.

Changing its strategy and culture meant a long wooing of vendors that would buy into the new methods. Now, executives say, their vendors prefer the Quadrant approach, and long-term relationships have been built.

Plumbing contractor Karel Peltram has worked with most of the major builders in the region and with Quadrant since 1989.

He said he liked the new concept when he first heard it, but he was skeptical the company could pull it off. "All builders try to do this, about halfway," he said. "But it takes a huge commitment."

Now Auburn-based Peltram Plumbing, with approximately 100 employees, is Quadrant's exclusive plumbing contractor. The disciplined process "has really spoiled us," Peltram said. "It works really good, and we enjoy working with them."

Part of a big player

Executives decline to break out Quadrant's financial numbers. It's one of five homebuilders in the Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Co., which posted $3.3 billion in revenue in 2006. The company says it is the No. 2 homebuilder nationally in gross margin, sixth by pretax earnings and 15th in closing volume and revenue.

In the third quarter, Weyerhaeuser reported that earnings from real estate and other related assets totaled $60 million, down 55 percent from the same period in 2006.

Gross margins for single-family housing for all five Weyerhaeuser homebuilders was 17.9 percent in the quarter, as the subprime loan bust and housing slowdown affected all builders nationally. In 2006, the Weyerhaeuser homebuilders reported a gross margin of 26.5 percent.

By comparison, KB Home reported a gross margin of 19.5 percent for its fiscal 2006, ending Nov. 30. Homebuilders generally saw business grow markedly worse this year, dragged down by the subprime-loan bust.

Weyerhaeuser said the market in the Puget Sound area has been its strongest in 2007, and in late October the company said it remains bullish on the housing market over the long term.

In an age of giant national homebuilders, Weyerhaeuser gives its regional units considerable autonomy. As a producer of wood products, the forest-products giant also gives stability that freestanding homebuilders lack in a downturn.

Those aren't the only advantages, according to Orser.

"Weyerhaeuser is not free money," he said. "They expect a return on investment. On the other hand, we don't have to get bank loans. They are the bank."

Orser is blunt about the downturn.

"The market is in turmoil right now. People talk about Seattle being immune or better-off, and rightly so. But it will hit here." He said it will take time for the industry to "return to sanity," where housing grows with jobs and incomes.

He paused and added, "If I were starting a homebuilding company today, I'd still put my money on Seattle."

Real Estate Designers offers totally innovative solutions for your software development, Internet programming, real estate web design and hosting needs. Our service includes domain name registration and real estate web design. Real Estate Designers provides the complete solution including design, application development and marketing.



source: seattletimes.nwsource.com